Development of incoming orders in the manufacturing industry, reporting month July 2024

The order situation in the manufacturing industry appears to be stabilising. According to the Federal Statistical Office, orders in July increased by 2.9% compared to the previous month, after price, calendar and seasonal adjustments. According to revised figures, they had already risen significantly in June (+4.6%) for the first time since the beginning of the year. At the beginning of the third quarter, the upward trend was mainly driven by foreign business. While incoming orders from abroad rose by 5.1%, domestic demand stagnated (0.0%) after a surge in orders in the previous month (+9.4%). However, excluding the strongly fluctuating major orders, order activity fell slightly by 0.4% compared with the previous month.

Developments varied across the individual sectors of the manufacturing industry: While the pharmaceutical products (-6.4 %), chemical products (-0.8 %) and mechanical engineering (-6.1 %) segments had to accept falls in incoming orders, the other vehicle construction segment (+86.5 %), which is strongly characterised by major orders, the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts segment (+1.6 %) and the electrical equipment manufacturers (+18.6 %) segment were able to record significant increases in incoming orders compared to the previous month.

The renewed increase in July means that new orders are now also up again by 1.7% in the less volatile three-month comparison, to which domestic demand has contributed in particular. Even though significantly more orders have recently been received from abroad again, purchasing managers' indices and current data on the international economy suggest that foreign demand will remain weak. In addition, key sentiment indicators in the manufacturing sector have deteriorated again of late. Industrial activity is therefore likely to remain subdued in the coming months.